Which of the following is a qualitative forecasting method?

• A. Time series analysis
• B. Causal models
• C. Delphi method
• D. Panel consensus

Answer: (C)

Qualitative forecasting methods rely on judgment, opinions, and intuition from experts rather than numerical data. The Delphi method fits this because it gathers insights from a panel of experts through multiple rounds of questionnaires, with anonymous feedback and iterative refinement, to reach a consensus. It doesn’t depend on historical time-series data, regression, or other numerical relationships; instead, it leverages expert judgment to forecast uncertain future conditions, such as market demand, technology adoption, or regulatory impacts. This structured, collaborative process helps reduce individual biases and is particularly useful when data are scarce or the future is highly uncertain.

Time series analysis and causal models are grounded in numerical data and statistical relationships, making them quantitative. Panel consensus involves expert input as well, but it typically lacks the formal, iterative Delphi process that emphasizes anonymity and controlled feedback to converge on a forecast.